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Exploring co-morbidities in medical case studies

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A previous post described a first look at the data available in casesdatabase.com, primarily looking at summaries of high level meta-data. In this post I start looking at the cases themselves. As I noted previously, BMC has performed some form of biomedical entity recognition on the abstracts (?) of the case studies, resulting in a set of keywords for each case study. The keywords belong to specific types such as Condition, Medication and so on. The focus of this post will be to explore the occurrence of co-morbidities – which conditions occur together, to what extent and whether such occurrences are different from random. The code to extract the co-morbidity data and generate the analyses below is available in co-morbidity.py

Before doing any analyses we need to do some clean up of the Condition keywords. This includes normalizing terms (replacing ‘comatose’ with ‘coma’, converting all diabetes variants such as Type 1 and Type 2 to just diabetes), fixing spelling variants (replacing ‘foetal’ with ‘fetal’), removing stopwords and so on. The Python code to perform this clean up requires that we manually identify these transformations. I haven’t done this rigorously, so it’s not a totally cleansed dataset. The cleanup code looks like

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def cleanTerms(terms):
    repMap = {'comatose':'coma',
              'seizures':'seizure',
              'foetal':'fetal',
              'haematomas':'Haematoma',
              'disorders':'disorder',
              'tumour':'tumor',
              'abnormalities':'abnormality',
              'tachycardias':'tachycardias',
              'lymphomas': 'lymphoma',
              'tuberculosis':'tuberculosis',
              'hiv':'hiv',
              'anaemia':'anemia',
              'carcinoma':'carcinoma',
              'metastases':'metastasis',
              'metastatic':'metastasis',
              '?':'-'}
    stopwords = ['state','syndrome'', low grade', 'fever', 'type ii', 'mellitus', 'type 2', 'type 1', 'systemic', 'homogeneous', 'disease']
    l = []
    term = [x.lower().strip() for x in terms]
    for term in terms:
        for sw in stopwords: term = term.replace(sw, '')
        for key in repMap.keys():
            if term.find(key) >= 0: term = repMap[key]
        term = term.encode("ascii", "ignore").replace('\n','').strip()
        l.append(term)
    l = filter(lambda x: x != '-', l)
    return(list(set(l)))

Since each case study can be associated with multiple conditions, we generate a set of unique condition pairs for each case, and collect these for all 28K cases I downloaded previously.

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cases = pickle.load(open('cases.pickle'))
allpairs = []
for case in cases:
    ## get all conditions for this case
    conds = filter(lambda x: x['type'] == 'Condition', [x for x in case['keywords']])
    conds = cleanTerms([x['text'] for x in conds])
    if len(conds) == 0: continue
    conds.sort()
    pairs = [ (x,y) for x,y in list(combinations(conds, 2))]
    allpairs.extend(pairs)

It turns out that across the whole dataset, there are a total of 991,466 pairs of conditions corresponding to 576,838 unique condition pairs and 25,590 unique conditions. Now, it’s clear that some condition pairs may be causally related (some of which are trivial cases such as cough and infection), whereas others are not. In addition, it is clear that some condition pairs are related in a semantic, rather than causal, fashion – carcinoma and cancer. In the current dataset we can’t differentiate between these classes. One possibility would be to code the conditions using ICD10 and collapse terms using the hierarchy.

Number of co-morbidities vs frequency of occurrence

Number of co-morbidities vs frequency of occurrence

Having said that, we work with what we currently have – and it’s quite sparse. In fact the 28K case studies represent just 0.16% of all possible co-morbidities. Within the set of just under 600K unique observed co-morbidities, the bulk occur just once. For the rest of the analysis we ignore these singleton co-morbidities (leaving us with 513,997  co-morbidities). It’s interesting to see the distribution of frequencies of co-morbidities. The first figure plots the number of co-morbidities that occur at least N times – 99,369 co-morbidities occur 2 or more times in the dataset and so on.

Another way to visualize the data is to plot a pairwise heatmap of conditions. For pairs of conditions that occur in the cases dataset we can calculate the probability of occurrence (i.e., number of times the pair occurs divided by the number of pairs). Furthermore, using a sampling procedure we can evaluate the number of times a given pair would be selected randomly from the pool of conditions. For the current analysis, I used 1e7 samples and evaluated the probability of a co-morbidity occurring by chance. If this probability is greater than the observed probability I label that co-morbidity as not different from random (i.e., insignificant). Ideally, I would evaluate a confidence interval or else evaluate the probability analytically (?).

For the figure below, I considered the 48 co-morbidities (corresponding to 25 unique conditions) that occurred 250 or more times in the dataset. I display the lower triangle for the heatmap – grey indicates no occurrences for a given co-morbidity and white X’s identify co-morbidities that have a non-zero probability of occurrence but are not different from random. As noted above, some of these pairs are not particularly informative – for example, tumor and metastasis occur with a relatively high probability, but this is not too surprising

Probability of occurrence for co-morbidities occurring more than 250 times

Probability of occurrence for co-morbidities occurring more than 250 times

It’s pretty easy to modify co-morbidity.py to look at other sets of co-morbidities. Ideally, however, we would precompute probabilities for all co-morbidities and then support interactive visualization (maybe using D3).

It’s also interesting to look at co-morbidities that include a specific condition. For example, lets consider tuberculosis (and all variants). There are 948 unique co-morbidities that include tuberculosis as one of the conditions. While the bulk of them occur just twice, there are a number with relatively large frequencies of occurrence – lymphadenopathy co-occurs with tuberculosis 203 times. Rather than tabulate the co-occurring conditions, we can use the frequencies to generate a word cloud, as shown below. As with the co-morbidity heatmaps, this could be easily automated to support interactive exploration. On a related note, it’d be quite interesting to compare the frequencies discussed here with data extracted from a live EHR system

A visualization of conditions most frequently co-occurring with tuberculosis

A visualization of conditions most frequently co-occurring with tuberculosis

So far this has been descriptive – given the size of the data, we should be able to try out some predictive models. Future posts will look at the possibilities of modeling the case studies dataset.

Written by Rajarshi Guha

October 12th, 2013 at 10:43 pm

Exploring medical case studies

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I recently came across http://www.casesdatabase.com/ from BMC, a collection of more than 29,000 peer-reviewed case studies collected from a variety of journals. I’ve been increasingly interested in the possibilities of mining clinical data (inspired by impressive work from Atul Butte, Nigam Shah and others), so this seemed like a great resource to explore

The folks at BMC have provided a REST API, which is still in development – as a result, there’s no public documentation and it still has a few rough edges. However, thanks to help from Demitrakis Kavallierou, I was able to interact with the API and extract summary search information as well as 28,998 case studies as of Sept 23, 2013. I’ve made the code to extract case studies available as proc.py. Running this, gives you two sets of data.

  1. A JSON file for each year between 2000 and 2014, containing the summary results for all cases in that year which includes a summary view of the case, plus facets for a variety of fields (age, condition, pathogen, medication, intervention etc.)
  2. A pickle file containing the case reports, as a list of maps. The case report contains the full abstract, case report identifier and publication meta-data.

A key feature of the case report entries is that BMC has performed some form of entity recognition so that it provides a list of keywords identified by different types: ‘Condition’, ‘Symptom’, ‘Medication’ etc. Each case may have multiple occurences for each type of keyword and importantly, each keyword is associated with the text fragment it is extracted from. As an example consider case 10.1136/bcr.02.2009.1548. The entry extracts two conditions

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{u'sentence': u'She was treated by her family physician for presumptive interscapular myositis with anti-inflammatory drugs, cold packs and rest.',
u'text': u'Myositis',
u'type': u'Condition'}

and

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{u'sentence': u'The patient denied any constitutional symptoms and had no cough.',
u'text': u'Cough',
u'type': u'Condition'}

I’m no expert in biomedical entity recognition, but the fact that BMC has performed it, saves me from having to become one, allowing me to dig into the data. But there are the usual caveats associated with text mining – spelling variants, term variants (insulin and insulin therapy are probably equivalent) and so on.

Count of cases deposited per year

Count of cases deposited per year

However, before digging into the cases themselves, we can use the summary data, and especially the facet information (which is, by definition, standardized) to get some quick summaries from the database. For example we see the a steady increase of case studies deposited in the literature over the last decade or so.

Interestingly, the number of unique conditions, medications or pathogens reported for these case studies is more or less constant, though there seems to be a downward trend for conditions. The second graph highlights this trend, by plotting the number of unique facet terms (for three types of facets) per year, normalized by the number of cases deposited that year.

Normalized count of unique facet terms by year

Normalized count of unique facet terms by year

This is a rough count, since I didn’t do any clean up of the text – so that misspellings of the same term (say, acetaminophen and acetaminaphen will be counted as two separate medication facets) may occur.

Another interesting task would be to enrich the dataset with additional annotations - ICD9/ICD10 for conditions, ATC for drugs – which would allow a higher level categorization and linking of case studies. In addition, one could use the CSLS service to convert medication names to chemical structures and employ structural similarity to group case studies.

The database also records some geographical information for each case. Specifically, it lists the countries that the authors are from. While interesting to an extent, it would have been nice if the country of occurrence or country of treatment were specifically extracted from the text. Currently, one might infer that the treatment occurred in the same country as the author is from, but this is likely only true when all authors are from the same country. Certainly, multinational collaborations will hide the true number of cases occurring in a given country (especially so for tropical diseases).

But we can take a look at how the number of cases reported for specific conditions, varies with geography and time. The figure below shows the cases whose conditions included the term tuberculosis

Tuberculosis cases by country and year

Tuberculosis cases by country and year

The code to extract the data from the pickle file is in condition_country.py. Assuming you have cases.pickle in your current path, usage is

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$ python condition_country.py condition_name

and will output the data into a CSV file, which you can the process using your favorite tools.

In following blog posts, I’ll start looking at the actual case studies themselves. Interesting things to look at include exploring the propensity of co-morbidities, analysing the co-occurrence of conditions and medications or conditions and pathogens, to see whether the set of treatments associated with a given condition (or pathogen) has changed over time. Both these naturally lead to looking at the data with eye towards repurposing events.

Written by Rajarshi Guha

October 10th, 2013 at 7:20 pm

Updated version of rcdk (3.2.3)

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I’ve pushed updates to the rcdklibs and rcdk packages that support cheminformatics in R using the CDK. The new versions employ the latest CDK master, which as Egon pointed out  has significantly fewer bugs, and thanks to Jon, improved performance. New additions to the package include support for the LINGO and Signature fingerprinters (you’ll need the latest version of fingerprint).

Written by Rajarshi Guha

October 6th, 2013 at 11:17 pm

Posted in cheminformatics,software

Tagged with ,

Support for feature,count fingerprints in fingerprint 3.5.0

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I’ve just updated the fingerprint package to v3.5.0 (should show up on CRAN shortly, or else you can get it directly from my Github repository). The main update in this version is better support for feature,count type fingerprints. An example would be ECFP or signature fingerprints. In these types of fingerprints, the output is usually a set of (integer or long) hash values or else structural fragments along with their count of occurrences.

The updated package now provides an S4 class to represent features and their counts. An example of this class is

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f1 <- new("feature",
          feature="[C]([N]([C]([N]([C][C,1](=[O]))=[O])[C](=[C]([C,1][N]([C,0]))[N](=[C,0]))))",
          count=as.integer(2))

The package provides getters and setters for these objects, allow you to get or set the feature and the count.

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> feature(f1)
[1] "[C]([N]([C]([N]([C][C,1](=[O]))=[O])[C](=[C]([C,1][N]([C,0]))[N](=[C,0]))))"
> count(f1)
[1] 2
> feature(f1) <- 'ABCD'
> count(f1) <- 12
> f1
ABCD:12

Using this class, feature,count fingerprints are now represented as objects of class featvec. For these fingerprints, instead of bits, one obtains a list of feature objects. For fingerprints read from files that provide the hashed version of the underlying structure (or neighborhood etc), the numeric hashes are read in as features, with a default count of 1. The distance method has also been updated to evaluate similarities for feature,count fingerprints, though currently it does not use the count in the similarity calculation.

As an example, consider a set of ECFP’s available from here

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> fps <- fp.read('http://pastebin.com/raw.php?i=gHjTQNKP', lf=ecfp.lf, binary=FALSE)
> fps[[1]]
Feature fingerprint
 name =  mol01
 source =  ecfp.lf
 features =  17:1 0:1 16:1 3:1 1:1 1747237384:1 1499521844:1 -1539132615:1 1294255210:1 332760439:1 -1549163031:1 1035613116:1 1618154665:1 590925877:1 1872154524:1 -1143715940:1 203677720:1 -1272768868:1 136120670:1 136597326:1 -1460348762:1 -1262922302:1 -1201618245:1 -402549409:1 -1270820019:1 929601590:1 -1597477966:1 -1274743746:1 -1155471474:1 1258428229:1 -1838187238:1 -798628285:1 -1773728142:1 -773983804:1 -453677277:1 1674451008:1 65948508:1 991735244:1 -1412946825:1 846704869:1 -2103621484:1 -886204842:1 1725648567:1 -353343892:1 -585443181:1 -533273616:1 2031084733:1 -801248129:1 1752802620:1 -976015189:1 -992213424:1 2109043264:1 -790336137:1 630139722:1 -505031736:1 -1427697183:1 -2090462286:1 -1724769936:1
> distance(fps[[1]], fps[[1]])
[1] 1
> distance(fps[[1]], fps[[2]])
[1] 0.1566265

Written by Rajarshi Guha

October 6th, 2013 at 5:21 pm

Life and death in a screening campaign

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So, how do I enjoy my first day of furlough? Go out for a nice ride. And then read up on some statistics. More specifically, I was browsing the The R Book  and came across survival models. Such models are used to characterize time to events, where an event could be death of a patient or failure of a part and so on. In these types of models the dependent variable is the number of time units that pass till the event in question occurs. Usually the goal is to model the time to death (or failure) as a function of some properties of the individuals.

It occurred to me that molecules in a drug development pipeline also face a metaphorical life and death. More specifically, a drug development pipeline consists of a series of assays – primary, primary confirmation, secondary (orthogonal), ADME panel, animal model and so on. Each assay can be thought of as representing a time point in the screening campaign at which a compound could be discarded (“death”) or selected (“survived”) for further screening. While there are obvious reasons for why some compounds get selected from an assay and others do not (beyond just showing activity), it would be useful if we could quantify how molecular properties affect the number and types of compounds making it to the end of the screening campaign. Do certain scaffolds have a higher propensity of “surviving” till the in vivo assay? How does molecular weight, lipophilicity etc. affect a compounds “survival”? One could go up one level of abstraction and do a meta-analysis of screening campaigns where related assays would be grouped (so assays of type X all represent time point Y), allowing us to ask whether specific assays can be more or less indicative of a compounds survival in a campaign. Survival models allow us to address these questions.

How can we translate the screening pipeline to the domain of survival analysis? Since each assay represents a time point, we can assign a “survival time” to each compound equal to the number of assays it is tested in. Having defined the Y-variable, we must then select the independent variables. Feature selection is a never-ending topic so there’s lots of room to play. It is clear however, that descriptors derived from the assays (say ADMET related descriptors) will not be truly independent if those assays are part of the sequence.

Having defined the X and Y variables, how do we go about modeling this type of data? First, we must decide what type of survivorship curve characterizes our data. Such a curve characterizes the proportion of individuals alive at a certain time point. There are three types of survivorship curves: I, II and III corresponding to scenarios where individuals have a higher risk of death at later times, a constant risk of death and individuals have a higher risk of death at earlier times, respectively.

For the case of the a screening campaign, a Type III survivorship curve seems most appropriate. There are other details, but in general, they follow from the type of survivorship curve selected for modeling. I will note that the hazard function is an important choice to be made when using parametric models. There a variety of functions to choose from, but either require that you know the error distribution or else are willing to use trial and error. The alternative is to use a non-parametric approach. The most common approach for this class of models is the Cox proportional hazards model. I won’t go into the details of either approach, save to note that using a Cox model does not allow us to make predictions beyond the last time point whereas a parametric model would. For the case at hand, we are not really concerned with going beyond the last timepoint (i.e., the last assay) but are more interested in knowing what factors might affect survival of compounds through the assay sequence. So, a Cox model should be sufficient. The survival package provides the necessary methods in R.

OK – it sounds cute, but has some obvious limitations

  1. The use of a survival model assumes a linear time line. In many screening campaigns, the individual assays may not follow each other in a linear fashion. So either they must be collapsed into a linear sequence or else some assays should be discarded.
  2. A number of the steps represent ‘subjective selection’. In other words, each time a subset of molecules are selected, there is a degree of subjectivity involved – maybe certain scaffolds are more tractable for med chem than others or some notion of interesting combined with a hunch that it will work out. Essentially chemists will employ heuristics to guide the selection process – and these heuristics may not be fully quantifiable. Thus the choice of independent variables may not capture the nuances of these heuristics. But one could argue that it is possible the model captures the underlying heuristics via proxy variables (i.e., the descriptors) and that examination of those variables might provide some insight into the heuristics being employed.
  3. Data size will be an issue. As noted, this type of scenario requires the use of a Type III survivorship curve (i.e., most death occurs at earlier times and the death rate decreases with increasing time). However, decrease in death rate is extremely steep – out of 400,000 compounds screened in a primary assay, maybe 2000 will be cherry picked for confirmation and about 50 molecules may be tested in secondary, orthogonal assays. If we go out further to ADMET and in vivo assays, we may have fewer than 10 compounds to work with. At this stage I don’t know what effect such a steeply decreasing survivorship curve would have on the model.

The next step is to put together a dataset to see what we can pull out of a survival analysis of a screening campaign.

Written by Rajarshi Guha

October 2nd, 2013 at 10:22 pm